Polls; Everyone in politics use them, and all politicians say they give them no weight. However, John McCain has stopped campaigning in Colorado & Michigan based on the strength of Obama's numbers in those states.
All the Political pundits are talking about "The Bradley Effect", and its effect on Senator Obama's campaign. Some expect him to lose as much as 6 points due to this "Effect".
For those of you who are not familiar with this term, here is what it means: The Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.. This first happened when Tom Bradley an African-American lost the 1982 governors race in California, even though he was comfortably ahead in the polls.
I believe that in 2008 their will be an 'effect' that will impact voting, but it will not be a Bradley effect. Instead there will be a 'McCain' effect. John McCain has NEVER been embraced by his own party, and really embodies the policies of President Bush, and the old ideas of the 20th century. In the last week alone Senator Obama has picked up the endorsement of 25 conservative newspapers, and Colin Powell; one of the most respected conservative members of the GOP.
Senator Obama is competitive in many states that have been solid GOP states for years. In fact, unless McCain wins Pennsylvania, where he is behind 13 points, he cannot win this election.
On November 4th, I believe that most Independents, and as many as 10% of registered Republicans will vote for Senator Obama. And lets not forget about the MILLIONS of 18-25 year old voters that support Obama, and never get polled because they use cell phones almost exclusively.( Pollsters only call land lines)
If this indeed happens, Barack Obama will not only be president, but receive between 330-400 Electoral votes,
This would give him a clear mandate, and repudiate the last eight years of republican rule. That is why so many republicans will vote for a democrat, they know that the current administration does not represent them, and want to send a clear message to GOP leaders that it is time to change.
We will know in less that two weeks!!!